North America Lithium-ion Battery Recycling Market Size, Share & COVID-19 Impact Analysis, by Chemistry (Lithium Cobalt Oxide (LCO), Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP), Lithium Manganese Oxide (LMO), Lithium Nickel-based Materials), by Application (Automotive, Power Tools, Others), by Recycling Process (Physical/Mechanical, Hydrometallurgy, Pyrometallurgy) and Regional Forecast, 2021-2028
2026-07-10
Key Market Insights
The North American lithium-ion battery recycling market was valued at 66.34 million US dollars in 2020. It is projected to grow from 77.85 million US dollars in 2021 to 265.8 million US dollars by 2028, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.1% during 2021-2028. The regional impact of COVID-19 has been unprecedented and drastic, exerting a negative influence on market demand in this region throughout the pandemic. According to our regional analysis, the regional market saw a sluggish growth of 11.8% in 2020 when compared with the average year-on-year growth recorded between 2017 and 2019. The rise in CAGR can be attributed to the rebounding demand and expansion of the market following the end of the pandemic.
Remarkable advancements in global battery recycling have driven the expansion of lithium-ion battery recycling infrastructure. Revolutions in consumer electronics and the automotive industry have triggered a massive shift toward battery-powered devices and vehicles, making lithium-ion batteries a core component of this major development. The rising adoption of lithium-ion batteries, coupled with a growing volume of batteries reaching their end-of-life stage, has boosted the demand for lithium-ion battery recycling services.
Blockades on supply chains and distribution channels hindered market growth during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The COVID-19 pandemic exerted adverse impacts on nearly all sectors. To curb the spread of the COVID-19 virus, nationwide lockdown measures were implemented, inflicting heavy losses on a wide range of industries. Accordingly, the lithium-ion battery recycling sector also suffered substantial setbacks. As the market is highly reliant on the automotive and consumer electronics industries, disruptions to these sectors dampened investment within the market.
Disruptions to supply chains and logistics routes impeded the transportation of spent lithium-ion batteries to recycling facilities in other regions. This directly cut off the supply of second-hand batteries delivered to enterprises for recycling and severely disrupted their daily operations.
Latest Trends
The determination to commercialize technologies for recycling processes represents a critical trend.
The industry has witnessed remarkable developmental approaches adopted by various industry players to scale up recycling capacity and drive market growth. The construction of new facilities is expected to significantly boost industrialization levels and may create strong demand for new technologies over the next several years.
For instance, Li-Cycle announced a new recycling plant in Rochester, New York in December 2020. The facility boasts an annual processing capacity of 10,000 metric tons. It adopts a horizontal aluminium recycling process and hydrometallurgical techniques to achieve a recycling rate of 95%. In April 2021, Li-Cycle Corporation unveiled plans to build another lithium-ion battery recycling plant in Gilbert, Arizona. This marks the company’s second plant in the United States and its third facility globally, with a maximum annual processing capacity of 10,000 metric tons of end-of-life batteries.
Stringent regulations prohibiting the dumping of untreated waste are fuelling market expansion
All electronic waste generates large volumes of toxic waste that ends up in landfills. Lithium-ion batteries are classified as hazardous electronic waste due to the risk of fires if disposed of improperly. Additionally, illegal dumping of electronic waste in vacant lots has become a pressing environmental concern. To address this issue, governments have introduced regulatory frameworks governing chemical and electronic waste management, which is projected to drive growth in the North American lithium-ion battery recycling market in the coming years.
As an example, under Ontario Regulation 30/20, every manufacturer subject to Section 12 is required to establish and operate a battery management system during the compliance period. Mandatory promotional and educational programmes will be rolled out to raise public awareness of producers’ initiatives for battery collection, reduction, reuse, recycling and material recovery, as well as encourage public participation in such initiatives.
Driving factors
Government regulations aim to boost the adoption of cleaner power sources and unlock new potential.
The growing shift toward leveraging clean energy to supply power for diverse applications is likely to accelerate market expansion. Regional trends point to a sharp surge in lithium-ion battery installations for large-scale energy storage and electric vehicles (EVs). The anticipated rising deployment of these batteries across multiple use cases will drive the replacement of underperforming older batteries, generating waste that creates opportunities for recycling.
According to an NREL report on grid-scale battery storage, lithium-ion chemistry dominated the U.S. grid-scale battery storage market in 2020. Driven by technological innovation and expanded manufacturing capacity, the cost of lithium-ion chemistries plummeted by 70% between 2010 and 2016, with further price reductions projected (Curry 2017).
Per the U.S. Energy Information Administration, utility-scale battery storage capacity installed in the United States in 2017 reached 240 MWh with a power output of 120 megawatts, and lithium-ion batteries accounted for over 90% of this power capacity. The rising uptake of lithium-ion batteries in grid-scale energy storage and the growing demand for such batteries have fueled the growth of the regional lithium-ion battery recycling market.
Growing acceptance of electric vehicles powered by lithium-ion batteries fuels market expansion
Nations worldwide have witnessed a shift toward electric vehicles to cut carbon emissions and drive robust progress across the industry. The adoption of diverse electric vehicle models has risen steadily over the years, leaving a massive number of batteries reaching their end-of-life (EOL). According to the Energy Information Administration, the U.S. automotive market shrank by 23% in 2020, yet electric vehicle registrations declined less sharply than the overall market.
A total of 295,000 new electric vehicles were registered in 2020, approximately 78% of which were battery electric vehicles (BEVs), with their sales edging up by 2%. Government incentives were scaled back in 2020 because Tesla and General Motors had exhausted their available tax credits. Canada’s new car market dipped by 21%, while new electric vehicle registrations remained nearly flat compared to the previous year’s figure of 51,000. Ranking as the world’s eighth-largest electric vehicle market, Canada recorded over 40,000 electric vehicle sales back in 2018. As electric vehicle uptake expands, a growing volume of lithium-ion batteries will reach the end of their service life and become eligible for recycling.
Rising environmental awareness among corporations and consumers, coupled with high electric vehicle adoption rates in the United States and Canada, serves as a major driving force for this market.
Limiting factors
High capital investment and the absence of stringent policies serve as major limiting factors.
The construction of new infrastructure demands high upfront costs as well as stable supply and recycling chains, which restricts the lithium-ion battery recycling market. Furthermore, the lack of appropriate regulatory frameworks in countries that recycle battery materials may hinder industrial expansion. E-waste recycling in the United States is regulated at the state level, with only half of its states having enacted e-waste recycling legislation. This fragmented set of regulations creates obstacles for enterprises aiming to design products for improved recyclability.
Via chemical analysis
The lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) segment can maintain the largest share due to the high returns from recycling.
Based on differences in battery chemistry, the North American market is segmented into lithium cobalt oxide, lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide, lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide and lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide.
The lithium cobalt oxide segment holds the largest market share owing to the extensive application of LCO lithium-ion batteries in electronic products. The consumption and rapid obsolescence of electronic devices generate massive volumes of e-waste.
As a primary power source, lithium-ion batteries are a major contributor to such e-waste. With a cobalt content of 17%, lithium cobalt oxide batteries also deliver the most lucrative profits from recycling. Lithium iron phosphate batteries adopt phosphate as the cathode material. Featuring low resistance, they boast excellent safety and thermal stability, and are applied in scenarios demanding a long service life and prominent safety performance such as electric motorcycles. Lithium manganese oxide batteries possess superior high-temperature stability and enhanced safety compared with other lithium-ion battery chemistries, hence they are deployed in medical instruments, power tools, electric bicycles and other equipment.
Lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide batteries are applied in powertrain assemblies and grid energy storage systems.
Thanks to their favorable energy density and cycle life, they show promising potential for use in the automotive industry. Lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide batteries feature either high specific energy density or high specific power rather than both simultaneously, and are used in power tools and vehicle powertrains. Different types of chemical substances are yielded during the recycling process for all the aforementioned battery chemistries, which leads to variances in recycling costs and residual economic value.
Source Analysis
The adoption of electronics will drive the growth of this market segment.
By source, the market is segmented into electronics, power tools, electric vehicles and others.
The electronics segment accounts for the largest share of recycled lithium-ion batteries. Rising consumer uptake of portable battery-powered consumer electronics has led to a growing volume of second-hand batteries, which contributes to the dominant market share held by the electronics sector.
The power tools segment covers end-of-life lithium-ion batteries from power tools recycled through a variety of processes. LMO and NMC batteries are the primary battery types within this market segment. The electric vehicles segment refers to end-of-life lithium-ion batteries retrieved from electric vehicles via multiple recycling techniques. This segment is mainly composed of LFP, LMO, NMC and NCA batteries.
Electric vehicles represent one of the fastest-growing segments, fueled by surging demand for EVs and increased investments from manufacturers specializing in EV battery recycling. The other segments encompass end-of-life lithium-ion batteries from additional industries including industrial automation, UPS/data centers and telecommunications, which are recycled using diverse recycling methods.
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Lithium is included in national defense reserves for the first time, and America's largest lithium mine is set to go into production. Will lithium prices see a dramatic shift?
2026-07-10
As a core raw material for the new energy industry, lithium is a vital mineral required for electric vehicles and grid energy storage equipment, playing a pivotal role in the global green energy transition.
Owing to its high-efficiency energy storage capability, lithium has earned the moniker "white oil", emerging as a strategic resource fiercely contested by various countries and a focal point of market attention.
The lithium battery sector has posted a strong performance since the start of this week. On July 6, Weili Lithium Core surged to a daily trading limit right after the market opening, and Times Wanheng rallied to hit the upper limit in the afternoon trading session. On July 7, the lithium ore concept bucked the overall market trend to move higher: Yahua Group locked in a one-word daily limit, while Tianhua New Energy, Rongjie Co., Ltd., Shengxin Lithium Energy and Tianqi Lithium followed suit with price increases.
Beneath the market buoyancy lies not only the strong driving force from the continuously rising demand for power batteries and energy storage batteries, but also a piece of news from the other side of the Atlantic that broke out suddenly last weekend and drew widespread attention.
On local time July 2, the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) of the United States Department of Defense issued a tender notice, planning to procure battery-grade lithium carbonate via a five-year fixed-price contract to replenish the U.S. National Defense Stockpile. This marks the first large-scale procurement by the United States to include lithium in its national defense reserves.
According to the announcement, the maximum procurement volume of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 16,167 metric tons, with a maximum contract value of 300 million US dollars. Approximately 3,657 metric tons are expected to be purchased in the first contract year, followed by a year-on-year reduction in volume, down to around 2,839 metric tons in the fifth contract year.
The bidding documents specify that the procured product must be powdered battery-grade lithium carbonate with a purity of no less than 99.5%, to be delivered to designated DLA warehouses in New York State, Nevada State, Indiana State or Ohio State. The notice states that this procurement forms part of the U.S. National Defense Stockpile Program, intended to boost the strategic reserves of critical minerals and strengthen the security guarantee of supply chains for national defense and key industries.
According to available information, the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) of the U.S. Department of Defense oversees the global logistics and supply chain of the U.S. military and administers more than 4 million specific line items. The National Defense Stockpile (NDS), established in 1939, is designed to secure supplies of strategic materials during national emergencies.
The inventory size of the NDS follows a cyclical pattern. Its inventory value peaked at 9.6 billion U.S. dollars in 1989. After the end of the Cold War, the stockpile value fell to 1.2 billion U.S. dollars by 2021. In recent years, the reserve scale has been on the rise again, with the U.S. beginning to procure cobalt and lithium, strategic metals vital to the new energy sector.
Adjustments to the National Defense Stockpile are closely tied to the escalation of the U.S. federal government’s policies on critical minerals. Donald Trump’s first presidential term marked the awakening and launch phase of America’s critical minerals strategy, while his second term has shifted to concrete implementation and advancement of relevant initiatives.
Since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, his administration has centered its agenda on the America First principle. By leveraging emergency executive authority, allocating policy funding, expediting project approvals, imposing import tariffs and strengthening international cooperation, the U.S. has sought to minimize reliance on foreign critical minerals at the fastest pace and rebuild U.S. dominance in strategic mineral resources.
In March 2025, Trump signed an executive order authorizing emergency measures to boost domestic mineral output in the United States. This executive order permits the disbursement of funding and loan support under the Defense Production Act to drastically ramp up production of critical minerals and rare earth elements and foster the growth of the domestic mining industry across the U.S.
That November, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published the 2025 List of Critical Minerals on its official website. The updated list expanded the total number of designated mineral commodities to 60. Minerals featured on the list qualify for federal financial backing from the U.S. government, and related exploration, mining and refining projects can also receive streamlined regulatory approval.
Regarding the market impact of the U.S. Department of Defense's lithium carbonate reserve procurement plan, SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) pointed out that in terms of volume, the maximum procurement volume over five years stands at approximately 16,200 metric tons of lithium carbonate, equivalent to an annual average of 3,200 metric tons LCE. When broken down on a monthly basis, the procurement quantity only amounts to roughly 200 to 300 metric tons. This volume is insignificant within global lithium salt consumption, and its market influence is far weaker than that caused by demand fluctuations from new energy vehicles and energy storage sectors.
SMM holds the view that this procurement initiative should not be interpreted as incremental demand that can directly reverse the supply-demand balance; the announcement carries greater policy implications rather than material market effects. More precisely, it constitutes a "low-frequency, long-term, strategic procurement" that exerts limited marginal boost to the spot market fundamentals.
"This development does not signify a sudden surge in lithium demand; instead, it serves as a signal that the U.S. strategic stockpiling of critical minerals is transitioning from verbal pledges to concrete procurement implementation," SMM noted. The analysis also stressed that the key follow-up focus lies not on the announced funding ceiling, but on whether formal awards will be issued, which bidders win the contracts, the final transaction prices, and whether deliveries will be completed on an annual basis.
Calculated based on the disclosed upper spending limit of 300 million U.S. dollars, the implied maximum procurement price is about 18,600 U.S. dollars per metric ton, or approximately 134,000 Chinese yuan per metric ton. While this figure does not represent the actual transaction price, it reflects the U.S. government’s heightened emphasis on supply security, supplier qualification verification and long-term delivery reliability.
Beyond the strategic stockpiling of critical minerals, the U.S. Department of Defense has shifted its stance from collaborative development to a more proactive strategic approach. Last September, the U.S. government approved acquiring an equity stake in Lithium Americas to back the Canadian firm’s development of the Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada, which is expected to become a major domestic source of lithium supply for the United States.
As one of America’s largest lithium mines, the Thacker Pass Lithium Mine in Nevada has long been regarded as a core component of the U.S. domestic lithium supply chain development. Recent major news that the nation’s top lithium mine is poised to commence production marks a pivotal bet for the United States to rebuild its domestic metal supply chains.
According to a June 22 report by The Information, Phase 1 production at Thacker Pass, the lithium mine with the largest known reserves in the U.S., is scheduled to launch by the end of next year, with an annual output capacity ten times the country’s current lithium production volume upon launch.
The U.S. government holds a 5% equity stake in Lithium Americas and an independent 5% interest in the Thacker Pass mine, and has provided financial backing for the project via a $2.2 billion low-interest loan issued by the Department of Energy. Jon Evans, Chief Executive Officer of Lithium Americas, stated that the policy landscape has fundamentally reshaped the market dynamic: "The entire landscape has transformed completely from last summer to this summer, and we have been integrated into national energy security policies."
General Motors (GM) has pre-secured the entire 20-year output from Phase 1 of the mine, which can meet the battery demand for around 850,000 electric vehicles, or an equivalent volume of batteries for AI data centers, drones, robots and military equipment. Phase 2 of Thacker Pass plans to extract and process an additional 40,000 metric tons of lithium within the next decade. GM has secured a priority right to purchase 38% of Phase 2 output, alongside an option to acquire the remaining production volume.
Nevertheless, even if lithium ore mining output can be increased, the United States is still confronted with the tough challenge in the lithium refining stage, and it cannot break free from reliance on overseas refining in the short term. As a researcher from the Global Energy Center of the Atlantic Council put it: "Lithium ore itself is useless and has to be refined to produce lithium for batteries."
Lithium raw materials have to be processed and refined to manufacture chemicals applicable to battery cathode materials and electrolyte solutions. In fact, achieving self-sufficiency in the lithium battery industrial chain is far more complicated than anticipated.
Industry statistics indicate that the United States accounts for merely 1% of the global lithium salt processing capacity, with over 75% of its refining processes relying on China, leading to a severe mismatch between resources and processing capacity within its domestic supply chain. According to reports from S&P Global, lithium refining capacity in the region is extremely limited. Only two lithium refineries in North Carolina produce lithium hydroxide, with respective capacities of 15,000 tons and 5,000 tons.
Thacker Pass, the largest lithium mine in the United States, faces the same core concern triggering market anxiety: the lithium resources of this mine are embedded in clay layers, and this extraction technology has never been verified on a commercial scale. Even the CEO of Lithium Americas acknowledged that such uncertainties will keep weighing down the company's valuation until actual production is delivered.
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The US election is raging, and the car "weather vane" will change?
2024-11-01
With the 2024 US presidential election in full swing, the automotive industry is once again at the forefront.
As America's famous "Motor City" and home to 1.1 million auto jobs, Michigan is strategically important in the election.
Since 2008, presidential candidates who have won Michigan have gone on to win the White House, including Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020.
For now, Michigan remains a key swing state.
Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Donald Trump, and their running mates and supporters have all actively campaigned in Michigan in recent weeks, trying to win over undecided voters there.
Because Michigan's economy is so closely tied to the auto industry, Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois wrote in an investor note recently, "Michigan's 16 electoral votes put the auto industry at the forefront of the political debate."
In fact, the auto industry has been a hot topic in the US presidential election.
While major automakers and suppliers have shied away from publicly endorsing any presidential candidate (certainly not Musk, who has staunchly supported Trump), several auto industry executives and policy experts spoke in interviews about the election, citing electric vehicles, trade, tariffs, China, emissions regulations and labor as top concerns for automakers.
In addition, they discussed how to prepare for the policies each candidate might adopt and how to deal with the possibility of a divided Congress, in which the two houses of Congress are controlled by different parties.
Emission regulation
The most pressing issues for automakers are fuel economy (improving vehicle fuel efficiency and reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and emissions regulations, especially in several states such as California, Washington, Oregon and New York.
In California, for example, under the current requirements of California's Advanced Clean Vehicle Regulation II (ACC II), proposed and developed by the California Air Resources Board, new cars sold by 2035 must be zero-emission models. Starting with the 2026 model year, automakers must ensure that 35 percent of the vehicles they sell are zero-emission vehicles, including electric vehicles (BEVs), fuel cell vehicles, and standard-compliant plug-in hybrids.
The California Air Resources Board reports that 12 U.S. states and Washington, D.C., have adopted the rules, however, about half of the states plan to implement them starting with the 2027 model year.
Since the start of the year, only 11 states and the District of Columbia have had EV penetration of more than 10 percent, according to data from the American Automobile Association and the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a lobbying group that represents most major automakers operating in the United States.
Regardless of who ends up in the White House, many automakers will focus on delaying the California Air Quality Board's clean car rules in hopes of easing those standards to lower production costs and improve market competitiveness, auto industry executives said.
Auto industry insiders expect Trump to eliminate or freeze corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards for the 2027 to 2031 model years, and Harris to seek a compromise with automakers in setting the standards, an approach that is somewhat similar to the one taken by Biden.
Electric cars and the Inflation Reduction Act
Four years ago, electric cars were a hot campaign issue for Democrats; Four years later, it has become a Republican campaign buzzword.
Currently, electric vehicles and U.S. policies that support their adoption (such as the Inflation Reduction Act) are top concerns for auto industry executives and lobbyists.
If Trump returns to power, regulations and incentives for electric vehicles could change significantly, putting the industry in a temporary bind.
Republicans, led by Mr. Trump, have largely condemned electric vehicles, calling them a commodity imposed on consumers that would destroy the American auto industry. Trump has vowed to take office to repeal or eliminate many of the vehicle emissions standards set by the Environmental Protection Agency, as well as incentives to promote the production and adoption of electric vehicles.
By contrast, Democrats, including Harris, have historically supported electric vehicles and related incentives.
However, due to slower than expected consumer adoption of electric vehicles, and consumer attitudes toward electric vehicles, Harris has recently not been as strong in its support for electric vehicles. However, she has said she does not support mandates for electric Vehicles, such as the Zero-Emission Vehicles Act of 2019, which would require automakers to sell only electric vehicles by 2040.
The consensus in the industry is that future EV policy requirements will depend on the outcome of the US elections. If the election results lead to new policies or regulations, automakers could face new requirements, so they are waiting to see the outcome of the election and preparing their plans accordingly.
As Pablo Di Si, CEO of Volkswagen of America, said at a press event in September, "Depending on what happens in the U.S. elections, we may or may not face new requirements." [So] I'm obviously not making any decisions about future investments right now. We are waiting to see (the outcome of the presidential election).
However, Lucid Group CEO Peter Rawlinson said that no matter which presidential candidate wins the election, he believes the U.S. electric vehicle industry is still in its infancy and needs to continue to "nurture."
He also believes that the requirements in the Inflation Reduction Act for taking advantage of the electric vehicle tax credit should not only focus on the size of the battery, as is currently the case, but also on the efficiency of the vehicle. "It's really encouraging the manufacture of power-hungry electric vehicles," he said.
"It's really encouraging car companies to put more batteries in, rather than chasing higher energy efficiency."
Trade, tariffs and China
Both Mr Trump and Mr Harris have expressed an interest in reviewing the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the US North American trade deal, amid concerns about the global expansion of China's auto industry.
The USMCA, negotiated during Trump's first term as president, replaces the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and takes effect in 2020.
At the time, Trump touted the deal in his renegotiation, and Harris was one of 10 US senators who voted against the USMCA. For now, however, both sides agree that the deal needs to be improved to better support U.S. auto production.
Gm Chief Executive Mary Barra said last week that the company was "closely monitoring" the election, including how changes in trade and tariffs could affect the company. "Regardless of the outcome of the election, we have and will continue to engage constructively in the policymaking process."
She also said that while some cars sold in the United States are made abroad, many of the jobs created in the United States are associated with allied partners. This shows that while the car's manufacturing location may be abroad, these partnerships still have a positive impact on the U.S. economy and jobs. She stressed the complexity of the issue, meaning many factors need to be taken into account when discussing jobs, manufacturing and international cooperation.
Tariffs are at the heart of Trump's plans for the auto industry.
Trump has said he would sharply increase tariffs - by as much as 500 percent - to prevent Chinese automakers from exporting cars from Mexican factories to the United States.
Although Chinese automakers are not currently pursuing such a strategy, foreign media expects that they may try to adopt this approach in the future. However, Geshe Automotive Research Institute believes that in the future, whether Chinese car companies produce in China, Mexico or other countries, they will be imposed high tariffs when exporting to the United States, which means that other paths for Chinese car companies to enter the U.S. market will be completely closed.
Harris called Trump's tariff proposal a "sales tax on the American people," though she did not outline specific changes she would make to the current tariff structure if elected.
Jefferies noted that non-U.S. automakers account for 48 percent of total U.S. production and 52 percent of USMCA production, so if Harris wins the election, non-U.S. automakers could benefit more from the policy or market environment because of their larger share of production in the U.S. and North America.
Labour force
Industry insiders interviewed almost unanimously agreed that labor would be a concern among the many issues related to the auto industry, and they worried that a Harris victory would mean further increases in union organizing power.
Both Biden and Harris are so focused on the United Auto Workers (UAW) and UAW President Shawn Fain that they even had him speak at the Democratic National Convention.
Arguably, under Fain and the senior advisers he brought in from the outside, the UAW's political influence has grown stronger and it is likely to play a greater role in policy and decision-making.
However, there are different views or differences of opinion within the UAW and other unions. Such divisions may affect the union's political unity and action.
The Teamsters declined to endorse either candidate because of internal disagreements, but UAW leaders not only backed Harris but also helped her campaign in Michigan and other states.
The UAW said last week that internal polls show "Kamala Harris gaining strength over Donald Trump, and Harris' lead over Trump has increased significantly in the last month."
By contrast, the relationship between Trump and Fain is full of gunpowder.
Trump and Fain have traded accusations on social media and in public. For example, Trump has criticized Fain's leadership on social media, arguing that he has not done enough for workers, while Fain has hit back at Trump, accusing him of taking positions on workers' rights and economic policy that are bad for workers.
What's more, blue-collar workers, including UAW members, were seen as key supporters of Trump's victory over Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016.
But UAW leaders have publicly called for support for Democratic candidates, a political antagonism that has further strained relations between Trump and Fain. But what is certain is that Biden and Harris' aggressive approach to supporting workers and unions, and the degree of emphasis on the UAW, will worry automakers and suppliers, especially the UAW's growing influence in organizing unions and fighting for workers' rights, which could put companies under cost and competitive pressure.
Conclusion
Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois wrote in an investor note that "there are significant differences in rhetoric and views between Trump and Harris, but there are also some points of common ground or convergence."
Industry insiders expect a Harris victory to be a continuation of Biden's four years in office, rather than a replication. They see Harris as likely to be more understanding of business, but there are concerns that some of Harris's policies and appointments are unclear, experts said, as well as concerns about her ties to the UAW, particularly Fain, who has been antagonistic to automakers and may even already be seen as a "mortal enemy."
Most auto industry executives expect that if Mr. Trump returns to the White House, he will revert to the policies and measures of his previous presidency, but perhaps take a more aggressive stance than before.
Industry insiders expect Mr. Trump to loosen or roll back the federal government's tightening emissions and fuel economy rules; Reigniting the fight between California and other states (referring to the dispute between California and some other states over setting auto emission standards) And there could be funding changes to key pieces of legislation in the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act.
It would be difficult for Trump to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act outright, but he could eliminate or limit electric vehicle subsidies through executive orders or other policy actions.
Regardless of whether the industry's "weather vane" changes or stays the same, automakers, suppliers and other auto-related companies are preparing for different election outcomes and possible repercussions.
As Stefan Hartung, CEO and Chairman of Bosch, said, the US election will bring clarity to the market and the industry will adjust to the outcome.
"We can't make perfect assumptions. Both presidential candidates offer some opportunities and challenges that companies have to take into account." So says a leading lobbyist and public policy expert for a major automaker.
Some Wall Street analysts have speculated that traditional automakers - particularly the "Detroit three" General Motors, Ford Motor and Chrysler parent Stellantis - would benefit the most under Trump and Republican control of Congress.
Electric vehicle startups such as Rivian Automotive and Lucid Group stand to benefit more after Harris and the Democrats win, largely due to their administration's expected plans involving electric vehicles and fuel economy requirements.
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The lithium iron phosphate market continues to grow
2024-11-01
The demand for lithium iron phosphate is continuing to be strong, and its market share has once again set a new high. According to data from the Power Battery Application Branch, in September, the domestic power battery installed capacity was 54.8GWh, up 44.4% year-on-year. Among them, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 41.8GWh, up 81.4% year-on-year, accounting for 76.2% of the total installed capacity, setting a new historical high; the installed capacity of ternary batteries was 13.0GWh, accounting for 23.7% of the total installed capacity, down 12.9% year-on-year.
The lithium iron phosphate market has been "continuously" growing since 2021.
Since 2021, the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in China has already surpassed that of ternary batteries. Compared to ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate has advantages such as higher safety, better economic efficiency, and longer life. With the help of innovative technologies, the advantages of lithium iron phosphate in terms of safety and cost have become increasingly prominent in recent years, and the low-temperature performance of lithium iron phosphate batteries has continued to improve. The penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the field of new energy vehicles has continued to increase.
In terms of exports, the growth of lithium iron phosphate batteries has also been very rapid. From January to September this year, the cumulative export volume of domestic power batteries was 92.5GWh, up 3.9% year-on-year. Among them, the export volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 34.1GWh, accounting for 36.9%, up 26.6% year-on-year; while the export volume of ternary batteries was down 6.6% year-on-year.
In terms of materials, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, the export volume of lithium iron phosphate in China was 538 tons in September 2024, up 105% from the previous month and up 1,212% from the same period last year, setting a new record for export volume.
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Orders for lithium iron phosphate batteries are becoming more frequent.
As the inventory reduction gradually comes to an end, the prospects for the phosphate iron lithium industry are expected to further improve. Guotai Junan stated that the lithium battery industry is a sector whose fundamentals have actually improved due to policy-driven factors, and the short-term car market, coupled with the unexpectedly high output plan for energy storage, and the long-term European carbon emission regulations and the US rush to install energy storage systems are expected to boost demand in the coming year. The industry is experiencing a sharp increase in demand for high-end phosphate iron lithium, and the market has already seen a situation of supply shortages, with a price increase expected.
Battery China has noticed that orders involving lithium iron phosphate have significantly increased this year. In August, Fu Lin Precision Industry announced that its subsidiary Jiangxi Shenghua had signed an agreement with CATL, under which CATL paid a deposit to support Jiangxi Shenghua's project to build a 7.5-million-ton-per-year plant for lithium iron phosphate materials. CATL promised to purchase at least 140,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate from Jiangxi Shenghua annually from 2025 to 2027, provided that the products had comprehensive advantages.
There is an unusually high demand for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries in overseas markets, especially in Europe and the United States. European car giant Stellantis says that LFP batteries are more cost-competitive and can produce more affordable vehicles for the middle class. Additionally, this type of battery has the characteristics of long life and high thermal stability, which helps provide high-quality and durable electric vehicles for customers. According to industry estimates, the total demand for power and energy storage batteries in Europe will reach 150GWh by 2030, with about half of that, or 750GWh, using the LFP route.
In July this year, French car manufacturer Renault signed a 39GWh lithium iron phosphate battery procurement contract, which will be used to support its electric vehicles with a total of about 600,000 units. It is reported that Renault's electric vehicle business department Ampere will cooperate with LG Energy Solution and CATL to establish a lithium iron phosphate battery supply chain in Europe.
In terms of equipment, in March this year, XianDai Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd. stated that the company had signed a global strategic cooperation agreement with American battery manufacturer ABF to provide ABF with lithium battery smart production line services with a total scale of 20GWh. It is said that this was the largest lithium battery equipment order that a Chinese company had received in the United States at the time. ABF is an American battery manufacturer specializing in the manufacture of lithium iron phosphate batteries, and its first production line located in Tucson, Arizona, is expected to come into operation in 2025.
It is worth noting that earlier this year, Samsung SDI stated that it was considering using equipment supplied by Chinese suppliers in its production line for lithium iron phosphate batteries. Sources revealed that Samsung SDI held closed-door meetings with potential suppliers to explain its plans for its lithium iron phosphate battery production project. Samsung SDI is expected to place orders for equipment this year and begin installing it next year, with its lithium iron phosphate battery production line likely to be built in the Ulsan factory.
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Capacity expansion is in full swing.
According to industry estimates, the global demand for power batteries will exceed 3500GWh by 2030, while the demand for energy storage batteries will reach 1200GWh. In the power battery sector, lithium iron phosphate batteries are expected to account for 45% of the market share, with demand exceeding 1500GWh. In the energy storage sector, lithium iron phosphate batteries are expected to account for over 85% of the market share, with demand exceeding 1000GWh.
Faced with robust market demand, battery and material manufacturers are stepping up their investments in lithium iron phosphate. In July this year, ACT Battery, a joint venture between BYD and American battery maker Maxwell Technologies, broke ground on a project in Mississippi, US, with an annual production capacity of about 21GWh of square lithium iron phosphate batteries, expected to start deliveries in 2026; and Envision AESC, a battery maker backed by Chinese energy giant Envision Group, started construction on a factory in Spain, which will become its first lithium iron phosphate battery factory in Europe upon completion in 2026.
In March this year, it was reported that CATL was in talks with General Motors to explore a technology licensing partnership and jointly build a lithium iron phosphate power battery factory in North America. The planned annual capacity of the factory is no less than that of the factory CATL built with Ford Motor, meaning the capacity scale will exceed 35GWh.
In terms of materials, in October this year, Longpan Technology, a subsidiary of Longpan Science and Technology, held an investment signing ceremony for its first overseas lithium iron phosphate factory in the world. The Indonesia Investment Agency (INA) and Changzhou Lithium Source jointly signed a $200 million investment intent letter. This investment plan will enable Changzhou Lithium Source's Indonesia factory to expand its capacity from the current phase 1 annual output of 30,000 tons to 120,000 tons. Upon completion and put into operation, the project may become the largest lithium iron phosphate cathode material manufacturing plant outside of China.
In September this year, the Xiamen lithium iron phosphate project of Shengtun Mining Group was put into operation, with a total investment of about 3.1 billion yuan. The project plans to build a 200,000-tonne lithium iron phosphate production base. According to the plan, the project will be divided into two phases and is scheduled to be fully completed and put into operation in the fourth quarter of 2026. Similarly, in September, Wanrun New Energy announced that it would build a 50,000-tonne lithium iron phosphate production facility in South Carolina, USA.
Currently, more and more car manufacturers are adopting lithium iron phosphate batteries. In addition to domestic manufacturers, international car manufacturers such as Tesla, Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Ford, Hyundai, Renault, General Motors, Nissan, and Honda have already or plan to further expand the installation of lithium iron phosphate batteries. From a global perspective, the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries will continue to increase in the future.
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Form Energy's '100-Hour' Iron-Air Battery Gains Traction with Puget Sound Energy
2024-03-28
Puget Sound Energy, an electric and gas utility serving 1.2 million customers in Washington State, has entered into a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Form Energy, the US startup known for its iron-air battery technology. The agreement signals the potential development of a joint pilot project, featuring a 10MW system with a remarkable 1,000MWh capacity, equivalent to a 100-hour duration.
Form Energy's innovative battery tech relies on iron and air, employing a process where iron rusts (oxidizes) during charging and de-rusts during discharge. Led by CEO Mateo Jaramillo, a former executive at Tesla, Form Energy gained attention with its first utility pilot project agreement in 2020, involving a 1MW/150MWh system with Minnesota's Great River Energy.
Puget Sound Energy, considering a pilot project deployment in its service area, sees Form Energy's system as a strategic move to meet clean energy requirements outlined in Washington State laws. The Clean Energy Transformation Act mandates retiring all utility coal generation by 2025 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2030.
The utility's interest in Form Energy's technology is part of a broader trend where US utilities, facing coal retirements, seek alternatives for both electricity generation capacity and economic benefits. Form Energy, having raised around US$800 million in investment, is constructing its first battery factory in West Virginia.
The MoU with Puget Sound Energy adds to Form Energy's growing list of partnerships, showcasing the industry's confidence in the potential of long-duration energy storage solutions. Washington's ambitious clean energy goals align with Form Energy's mission, positioning the startup as a key player in the transition to renewable and sustainable energy practices.
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